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This is pure crystal-ball gazing. The cyclicals could easily fizzle along with, say, the Asian recovery. But what if they don't? Now is a good time to review your portfolio. Odds are that you or the stock pickers at the mutual funds you own have grown a little too fond of technology and big consumer stocks. One quick way to judge: look at your portfolio's return in April. Lose money? That's a sign that you may be overexposed to speculation.com A diverse portfolio would include cyclicals, whose com-like gains last month would have offset weakness...
This is no time to dump tech stocks wholesale. The information revolution will continue to shape the world economy for years to come, and profitable tech companies remain solid long-term holdings. But if you must lighten up on tech to broaden your portfolio, do it. Companies that build tractors, equipment, highways and skyscrapers--left for dead until a few weeks ago--may be in favor for a year or longer. The biggest cyclical names, like Caterpillar, International Paper and DuPont, have already had huge moves but probably still have room to run. Consider also an investment in a Wilshire...
...this assumes, of course, that financial-market investments will continue to provide an attractive return. That seems reasonable, at least in the long run. Martin Feldstein, president of the National Bureau of Economic Research, calculates that a portfolio 60% of which is invested in stocks and 40% in bonds would grow on average 5.5% a year. That represents the actual average from the end of World War II until today, minus an allowance for administrative costs. By contrast, the special Treasury bonds that, by law, Social Security must now buy with any spare cash it has may yield on average...
...Nieman program is available to any mid-career journalist who works full-time and has at least three years of experience. The application process includes a brief biography, a study proposal and a portfolio of recent work...
TRADE WINDS He rode the tech wave skillfully, but now Fidelity Magellan manager Robert Stansky seems a bit wary. Over the past few months, Stansky has lightened his tech load, from 25% to 20%, replacing Intel and Lucent at the top of his portfolio with Citigroup and Time Warner [parent of TIME's publisher]. He still has Microsoft, MCI WorldCom, AOL and Cisco (along with GE, Home Depot, Wal-Mart and Merck) at the core, a strategy that's working; so far, he's still beating the S&P, with a 12% return this year...