Word: predictabilities
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...predict that private equity will go through a shakeout similar to what we've seen in the housing market. How does that analogy work? Private-equity firms used the same cheap credit that caused the housing bubble to buy companies. There are about 100 of these firms - KKR, Blackstone and Carlyle are some of the bigger ones - and they buy a company the same way we would buy a house. Put down about 20% and borrow about 80%. The big difference is, the company they're buying borrows the 80%, so they're the ones responsible for repayment. These loans...
...would get the vaccine every year. They didn't. Experience alone had no effect on whether you get the flu shot. But if you factored in whether someone was risk averse (they didn't want the flu again) or altruistic (they cared about infecting other people), then you could predict who would get a flu shot...
...explain why seemingly similar people make vastly different decisions. Their book, You Are What You Choose, explores how certain attributes - such as a willingness to take risks, or worrying about what others think - affect our choices. De Marchi and Hamilton talked to TIME about their model, what it can predict and why anyone would ever want to drive a Prius. (See TIME's photo-essay "Those Things Money...
...vote in every election, and I have my kids come with me to hand out literature at the polls. He doesn't like team sports, whereas I'm a baseball coach. We wanted to explore people's decision-making styles. We came up with a model that can predict things that normal demographics can't - whether you got the flu shot, how you feel about gay marriage, your political involvement. We used 30,000 individuals who filled out surveys to predict how people make decisions...
What can't TRAITS explain? Hamilton: We could predict whether you'd go for healthy food or fast food, but we can't predict chocolate or vanilla. We can tell if you'd support a third-party, independent or major-party candidate, but we don't do a good job predicting who is a Democrat vs. a Republican...