Word: predictable
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...fully determined models delivering certainty.” Perhaps he is referring to the models peddled by certain misguided financiers. But to suggest that the entire profession of economics engages in an extreme kind of wishful thinking, or worse, deception, is grossly unfair and misleading. Cobb-Douglas will not predict economic growth in the way that Newton’s Laws describe motion, but it generates crucial insights into economic phenomena and is a powerful tool in understanding the principles underlying economic relationships...
...need to better understand and communicate the limitations of data, that it is crucial to guard against unjustified trust in our preferred models (perhaps the author forgets that before the crisis, there were plenty of critics of the efficient market hypothesis who were using data and simulation to predict pathological behavior in asset markets). But a data-driven, formal approach to making policy decisions is quite frankly the best we can do and therefore essential. “Embracing uncertainty” and abandoning mathematical models, while assuming that human behavior isn’t even “remotely...
...online self-described “legal tabloid” Above the Law reported on Stephanie Grace’s now infamous e-mail—which suggested that African-Americans are predisposed to be less intelligent—two weeks ago, they should have been able to predict the blogosphere storm that would ensue. Shortly after Above the Law’s post, which attempted to keep the author of the e-mail and the individual who forwarded it anonymous, Gawker released their names and pictures to the public. Public Internet sentiment comes out strongly against Grace, a third...
Instead, he says, places where students drink heavily may predict where sexual assaults will take place...
Greece will likely recover from its financial meltdown—though the process may take decades, Harvard professors predict...