Word: predictable
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...This is a basic human idea that if things have equal probabilities, they have to even out in the short term as well as the long term, and this is the crux of the fallacy,” Barron said. In the study, the researchers had their subjects predict the color outcomes of a roulette wheel, where one group saw the past outcomes all at once, and a second group saw them revealed in real time. Barron and Leider found that the players who saw the outcomes in real time were much more likely to experience the fallacy because they...
...invention that significantly altered almost every aspect of American life from shopping to sex. But Americans are doing demonstrably less of the former when it comes to cars. Sales are braking quickly, and this month are expected to be at their lowest level in 25 years, industry experts predict. According to J.D. Power, automakers will sell 10.8 vehicles at retail (fleet sales will add another 2.8 million). That's a drop of more than 15% from 2007. "Nobody's is coming into the showrooms," notes a senior official from Volkswagen of America...
...passing through difficult times, but so is the rest of the world. Financial profligacy is not an American monopoly but is common to all free-market democracies. The U.S. and the world have seen worse times, and this one too will pass, pessimists and naysayers notwithstanding. To predict "the end of the American era," as Michael Elliott does, is both premature and foolish. The U.S. still has a huge population of highly educated, smart and hard-working people who continue to excel in innovation and industry. Readers who live outside the U.S., as I do, have only to look around...
...That's the good news. The bad news for Turkey - and for other emerging markets that were once the darlings of international investors - is that however much they run, they can't hide. It's still too early to predict the full consequences of the financial upheaval in the U.S. and Europe, but it's already clear that the boom years are over. Turkey's banks haven't tottered, but its economy is now starting to. After six years in which growth averaged almost 7% annually, most forecasters expect the economy to expand by less than 4% this year...
...Factors such as urban design, land usage, and social equity all occur in tandem and it is difficult to disentangle them,” he said. “Could I predict, right now, whether Harvard’s current plan will be social failure or an absolute success? Absolutely...