Word: predicters
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...quick to notice when she began behaving oddly a few years ago - leaving the front door open when she left the house, "vagueing out" during conversation, struggling with basic instructions. In January last year, at the age of 54, she was diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease, which doctors predict will end her life within six years unless there's a breakthrough in treatment...
...that Asia may have to learn to live with higher energy costs indefinitely. With OPEC producers struggling to pump enough to meet booming global demand?and with supplies jeopardized on an almost daily basis by political events in Russia and Venezuela and by terrorist attacks in Iraq?energy experts predict that oil is unlikely to fall to less than $30 per barrel and will probably remain substantially higher. Prices "are going to start with a 3 or a 4 for some time," warns Spencer White, chief Asia strategist for Merrill Lynch...
Chou and Stroll have grown confident in their ability to predict changing consumer tastes and then to satisfy the new appetite. It sounds simple, but just how do you dress 100 million Americans? "Every generation of consumers has a specific taste," says Chou. "In the '80s it was Waspy, which is what Ralph Lauren delivered. Then in the '90s the urban and street look took off, and Tommy Hilfiger owned that. Today the consumer is swinging back. They want smart casual...
...should markets be better forecasters than polls? Economist Friedrich von Hayek argued that markets efficiently gather information held by widely dispersed people, summarizing it in the form of prices. In speculative markets, traders and bettors are rewarded only if they correctly predict future prices. That, Wolfers says, motivates them to get the best information they can, ignoring trivia and trends. "The market seems pretty highly attuned to news that affects the election outcome," Wolfers says. "That's not always the same as what the papers report. The market is unlikely to react to things like party conferences and policy speeches...
Markets aren't infallible, of course: Australian punters failed to predict the upset wins of Paul Keating in 1993 and Steve Bracks in 1999. And I.E.M. traders wrongly predicted in 2000 that Bush would win the popular vote as well as the presidency. In early July, Centrebet manager Gerard Daffy had several calls from people wanting to bet on the date of the election. He didn't open a book "for obvious reasons," he says. If he had, punters would have had another miss: "The date they were looking for was Sept...