Word: predictible
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...dollars on the line, the company’s top brass was unconcerned.AIG had hired Gary B. Gorton—a financial economist at Yale—to use quantitative models to project the worst case scenario for the company’s balance sheet.Using historical data, the models predicted a rosy future not too-unlike the recent, prosperous past, giving AIG’s leadership confidence in entering uncharted markets.But by last September, one of AIG’s gambles had all but destroyed the institution—once the 18th largest public company in the world. To prevent...
...reporter had his story—some people were still reporting—but the story was, in short, that after 135 years of graduating Crimson editors populating the ranks of young journalists, our class marked the end in another continuity. It is far safer, particularly these days, to predict a bust than a boom. Valleys all around without a peak to be seen...
...uncertainty beyond the ivory tower. If we consider the root causes of the current financial debacle that currently occupies all headlines, it becomes clear that recognizing and facing our shortcomings is necessary medicine for our social ailments, as is coming to terms with our inability to accurately predict what is to come. We cannot foretell the changing tides of Heraclitus’ river. Yet learning to fail inherently means learning to curb our hubris—and that is a lesson of personal growth I hope each of us takes through the gates...
...search for its causes and cure. Now a new study in the journal Sleep suggests a surprising treatment for the sleepless: the Internet. Web-based treatments have emerged for all kinds of bad habits and disorders, such as overeating, smoking, depression - and insomnia. (Read "Can a Sleep Disorder Predict Parkinson...
...perhaps even more critically, waste," says Andrew Wedeman, a political scientist and Chinese-corruption expert at the University of Nebraska. During the boom years, such waste mattered less because growth was so robust. But if China's GDP expands only 6% to 8% this year, as some predict, corruption could dampen recovery. "What really matters is not if funds will be siphoned off or how much will be siphoned off," Wedeman says, "but rather whether the siphoning will have a clear and negative impact on the central government's efforts to restimulate the economy...