Word: predictible
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...Housing Starts: Also on Friday, the U.S. Census Bureau releases housing starts, a figure that measures the number of privately-owned new residential homes being built. Analysts predict figures will either level off or continue to drift downward slightly from the August number of 895,000. The upside: "There isn't a lot of room for decline," says Englund. Many experts believe the bottom is near. LaVorgna says it is just a matter of time before the number drops below 800,000, a large plummet from the 2005 high of more than 2 million new homes under construction...
...That worries economists, as bank failures exacerbate the already bleak situation by decreasing the amount of lending in the system. That's one reason most now predict the country will sustain a protracted recession even if it manages to avoid the kind of systemic risk the FDIC feared a disorderly and public Wachovia failure might have brought...
Just don't be surprised if it doesn't last. Trying to predict whether the stock market will go up or down on any given day is a fool's game, but one thing is for sure: we live in highly volatile times. Wild swings to the upside may feel great, but they're still wild swings. That sort of dramatic movement can go both up and down, as we have witnessed...
...increased 4.3% - which means a recession represents a more than 5% swing in the other direction. And it's gotten even worse than that: during the relatively severe downturn of 1974, giving declined 5.4%. Given that the current crisis seems unprecedented in its scope, no one is willing to predict just how bad things might get for the nonprofit sector. "The ramifications are absolutely going to be huge," says Gordon J. Campbell, CEO and president of United Way of New York City...
...analysts admit that most of them failed to predict how fast oil prices would drop. Just a few months ago, some were saying oil might reach $200 a barrel by year's end. "The analysts have been quite surprised by the pace and volatility of the decline," says David Fyfe, senior oil analyst for the International Energy Agency in Paris, which as a rule does not predict oil prices. "The volatility has been quite marked...