Word: predicting
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...Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, a black Democrat, was running ahead in the polls for governor of California and was feeling confident going into election day. Pre-election polling showed that he had a significant lead over his Republican opponent, and exit-polling conducted on the day of the election predicted that Bradley would emerge victorious. But when all of the ballots were finally counted, the pollsters were proven wrong—fewer white voters had actually cast their ballots for Bradley than polling had anticipated. Daniel J. Hopkins ’00, a post-graduate fellow in government and social...
...Brand said. “We have a few holes and weaknesses we’re going to have to fill. It’s a very strong year for the Ivy League.” In a tournament of only individual events, it is difficult to predict where the Crimson will fall in the national rankings this year. Still, with the addition of many talented freshmen, the team can continue to be optimistic. “We certainly have some very good, top-notch individual fencers,” Brand said. “We had a pretty good...
...predict the votes of the undecided? It's actually not that hard. Our brains generate automatic responses to most stimuli. As the psychologist Robert Zajonc wrote compellingly in 1980, "We do not just a see 'a house.' We see a 'handsome' house, an 'ugly' house, or a 'pretentious' house ... We sometimes delude ourselves that we proceed in a rational manner and weigh all the pros and cons of the various alternatives. But this is probably seldom the actual case. Quite often 'I decided in favor of X' is no more than 'I like X.'" Most of us pick what...
...weigh the pros and cons and not be swayed by automatic, emotional responses. In the end, most of them will go with their guts - psychologists have shown that even those voters who at the explicit and conscious level deny any preference for a candidate usually have unconscious attitudes that predict how they will vote. But those who can wait until just days before a major election and still consciously describe themselves as undecided - that's an act of deliberative democratic will. At least, that's how I choose...
Networks began exit polling--surveying people leaving voting locations about the ballots they cast--in the 1960s, and it soon became a common tool to predict winners before votes were tallied. But after NBC reported Ronald Reagan's 1980 victory over Jimmy Carter hours before polls closed on the West Coast, Congress held hearings on whether the practice depressed voter turnout, and networks vowed not to project a state's winners until polls close. (Exit polling is protected by the First Amendment...