Word: predictional
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California's responses to the 1989 quake and to a 1994 temblor in Los Angeles are instructive. First, there's the science of quake analysis and prediction. In 1989 the Bay Area had only 75 accelerometer sensors, which locate quakes and determine their intensity. Today, there are more than 200, which allow seismologists to more immediately pin down the size and strength of an earthquake as it happens. Many of those sensors have also been equipped with global-positioning system add-ons, which can determine the rate at which a quake has caused a fault to slip. Scientists...
...unmistakable undertone of many of the conversations I have daily is that Americans are a people whose time has come and gone. Asian policymakers tell me of the need to diversify their economies away from the U.S.; corporate leaders talk of building new businesses in other emerging markets; economists predict how China and India will make gains at the expense of the U.S. (See "Best Photos of the Year, 2008: The American Economy: Down...
...solution: a new type of insurance. Retirement savings, it turns out, are exactly the type of asset we need insurance for. We need insurance to protect against risks we can't predict (when the market collapses) and can't afford to recover from on our own. "People tend to meld savings and insurance in their mind, but they are not substitutes," says Nancy Altman, a former Harvard professor and the author of The Battle for Social Security. "It's fine to have a savings plan as a supplement but not as the main retirement protection for everyone." She says...
Taking a long-term view might also have helped better predict Islamist terrorism in the 21st century. MI5 was slow to realize the potential threat, as it was busy dealing with IRA campaigns in the 1990s. It's not until 2003 that MI5 grasps that the radicalization of minority British Muslims is leading to terrorist attacks on British targets. (See pictures of terrorism...
Global warming is less dire than some scientists predict, and people have less of an effect on it than they think. Must we eat without trays to avoid impeding doom? No. Motel 6 can still leave the lights on for you. And you can take that extra napkin...