Word: predictionsã
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...colleagues honest about the quality of their judgment. Allison’s preferred form is a betting book in which he records the wagers he and his fellow policy experts are willing to make about the future. His colleagues “place small bets” on their predictions??just a couple dollars, he said, whatever’s “enough to matter.” Some of his colleagues bet there was a 99 percent likelihood of discovering weapons, Allison said. He remembers only one colleague who said there was zero chance that anyone...
While many of the students at UNO had lost homes and family incomes, students from outside of the city had more options. Tulane junior Natalie McKay—who had planned to drive to school the Sunday before the hurricane but stayed in New York after hearing the weather predictions??has arranged to study abroad in London through a Syracuse University program this semester...
...justify the linkage between the issues. In his recent State of the Union address, Bush meticulously avoided stating that privatization would fix Social Security’s problems. So why privatize in the first place? On the other hand, this entire debate is founded on certain economic and demographic predictions??low birthrates, low immigration and in particular low growth—while Bush’s plan predicts robust gains in the stock market. Normally, one expects financial markets and economies to function similarly over long periods. A sluggish economy should, over the course of 50 years, correspond...
...remarkably prescient column. Though Dean was on the upswing following an endorsement from Al Gore ’69, Alter said it was still too early to call him a “shoo-in,” positing two laws: the “Law of Premature Predictions?? and the “Law of Media Oscillation.” Of the second, he wrote, “The process invites—no, demands—a series of sine curves to keep everyone interested…The media will half-consciously rearrange all the atoms...
Even if preregistation improved class size predictions??allowing for additional training of graduate TFs—there is no indication that the quality of instruction would improve. There is no evidence that undergraduates are more dissatisfied with newly-hired TFs than with those who were picked months in advance. In fact, the most common complaint among students stems from communication problems, a deficiency that needs to be addressed but will not be cured by preregistration...
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