Word: predictors
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...upon shopping malls and retail stores at the crack of dawn on the day now dubbed Black Friday when the breathless speculation about how weak or strong this year's holiday shopping season began. The dirty little secret, however, is that the day is actually not a very good predictor of holiday sales overall. "No matter how successful Black Friday is, it's the weeks before and after Christmas that will determine how successful of a holiday season it is," says Scott Krugman, of the National Retail Federation...
...toddler-tutoring frenzy may be intensified by a study in the latest issue of Developmental Psychology. Researchers who examined longitudinal data on nearly 36,000 preschoolers in the U.S., Canada and Britain found that the best predictor of success in later school years wasn't the ability to pay attention or behave in class but was in entering kindergarten with elementary math and reading skills. Experts caution, however, that these findings should not be taken as an endorsement of academic drills for preschoolers. Says the study's lead author, Greg Duncan, a social-policy expert at Northwestern University: "The kind...
...Developed abilities aren't inborn traits but honed competencies, more akin to athletic skill gained through practice rather than raw IQ. By contrast, achievement tests measure the amount of material students have committed to memory in any particular field.) Combined with high-school grades, SAT scores are the best predictor of how kids will do in their freshman year of college. And the data in the new study shows that private-school students outperform public-school students...
...newly front-loaded and compressed. Will that make Iowa and New Hampshire more or less important? No one is certain. I suspect that the slingshot effect out of Iowa and New Hampshire could be greater than ever. In fact, in recent years Iowa has become an increasingly good predictor of the nominee: Bob Dole and Bush won Iowa in 1996 and 2000, respectively, and went on to win the GOP nomination; Al Gore and John Kerry won Iowa in 2000 and 2004 and prevailed on the Democratic side. But in a multicandidate field in Iowa, which it looks...
...girls, the rate of class failure was 24% higher than with their non-obese counterparts. The obesity effect on college enrollment was also slightly stronger for blacks and Hispanics than it was for whites but the results were rooted less in race than in psychosocial adjustment. "Race is a predictor of college enrollment, obesity and depression, but it doesn't seem to be a strong factor in how obesity predicts socio-emotional adjustment and how that predicts college enrollment," says Crosnoe. "It's really just a more general phenomenon across these racial groups...