Word: preslump
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...board's optimistic forecast, made in the face of a slowdown that chopped third-quarter growth to an annual rate of just 1.9%, noted the absence of such traditional preslump signals as climbing inflation and badly shaken consumer confidence. On the contrary, prices continue to hold steady and shoppers have been in a fairly good mood. The Commerce Department reported last week that November retail sales were up 1.8%. That early Christmas-season gain, the healthiest monthly increase since April, helped allay retailers' fears that holiday buying would be weak. Other key indicators showed that November industrial production...
...Economic Research, combining such measures as gross national income, output, sales and employment, shows that the summit seven as a group have largely regained their pre-recession heights of economic activity (see chart following page). But the progress is erratic. Except for the U.S., only Italy has surpassed its preslump industrial output-and Italy has other grave problems...
WEST GERMANY remains Europe's economic locomotive. It has just about recovered its preslump level of industrial output (97%), and its export performance is awesome; the trade surplus totaled $14 billion in 1976. But unemployment remains high at more than 1 million, or 4.6% of the labor force. Chancellor Helmut Schmidt has forecast a 5% growth rate in 1977, but several reliable economic institutes now expect a shortfall, indicating the need for stimulus. Despite fears of inflation, Schmidt is backing a $7 billion revival program with $1.5 billion to be spent this year...
JAPAN, despite a slower industrial recovery (85% of the preslump production level has been reached), is regaining its earlier vitality. The government is pumping $26 billion into the economy, mainly through big public works projects. Japan's revival distresses the European Community and the U.S. Both are pressing for voluntary Japanese curbs on some exports and greater purchases of imports. Japanese inflation, about 9.3% in 1976, is expected to cool to 7.7% or less this year...
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