Word: primark
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Dates: during 1990-1999
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...late summer last year "we told our clients, 'Take all your money out of Asia. Sell short,'" recalls Allen Sinai, chief global economist of Primark Decision Economics, a forecasting and consulting firm. In its worldwide model portfolio, it left only 5% for Japan. Says Sinai: "We doubled the allocation to Japan two months ago and put allocations back into South Korea, Hong Kong, Thailand and Singapore." Though many economists are dubious about how soon and how strongly Japan can recover from a long period of stagnation and now recession, Sinai pronounces himself "somewhat positive" on the outlook, at least...
...says. "You have less of your money tied up." He is also more cautious about his borrowings--one of the most important precautions any business can take. "People who are worried that we may have a recession need to reduce or eliminate their debts," says economist Allen Sinai of Primark Decision Economics. "In a recession your income may drop and your ability to repay debt will be greatly diminished...
...short, you need to think before you spend. Before going back to the abacus, however, know that the skeptics are still outnumbered by economists and executives who insist that business on the whole is more productive. Economist Allen Sinai of Primark Decision Economics points out that the U.S. has lately enjoyed "superstrong growth, superlow inflation and a superlow unemployment rate." That could not happen if productivity were really as low as the official figures indicate, he says; the numbers--er, do not compute. So productivity must be increasing faster than calculated, and one likely reason is computerization. Maybe the experts...
...rates ranged between 3.0% and 5.5% annually, and the sag is virtually certain to continue into next year. Given the continuing spread of the global financial crisis, from which the U.S. can no longer stay immune, "there must be a big slowdown," says Allen Sinai, chief global economist of Primark Decision Economics, a major forecasting firm. And next year, if the board's majority opinion is correct, the slowdown should cross the line into a growth recession. That is usually defined as a continuing increase in national output of goods and services, but one too puny to keep unemployment from...
...stricken region. The decline limited the growth of U.S. corporate earnings--a key determinant of stock prices--with industries from chemicals to aerospace reporting lower profits in the second quarter than in the same period a year ago. "Asia is unpredictable," says Allen Sinai, chief global economist for Primark Decision Economics. "I can't guarantee that there will be no recession in the U.S. next year because no one can be sure about Asia." Observes David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor's DRI: "Asia scares...