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...says. "You have less of your money tied up." He is also more cautious about his borrowings--one of the most important precautions any business can take. "People who are worried that we may have a recession need to reduce or eliminate their debts," says economist Allen Sinai of Primark Decision Economics. "In a recession your income may drop and your ability to repay debt will be greatly diminished...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Business Report: The Coming Storm | 11/9/1998 | See Source »

...short, you need to think before you spend. Before going back to the abacus, however, know that the skeptics are still outnumbered by economists and executives who insist that business on the whole is more productive. Economist Allen Sinai of Primark Decision Economics points out that the U.S. has lately enjoyed "superstrong growth, superlow inflation and a superlow unemployment rate." That could not happen if productivity were really as low as the official figures indicate, he says; the numbers--er, do not compute. So productivity must be increasing faster than calculated, and one likely reason is computerization. Maybe the experts...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Quarterly Business Report: Do Computers Really Save Money? | 10/12/1998 | See Source »

...rates ranged between 3.0% and 5.5% annually, and the sag is virtually certain to continue into next year. Given the continuing spread of the global financial crisis, from which the U.S. can no longer stay immune, "there must be a big slowdown," says Allen Sinai, chief global economist of Primark Decision Economics, a major forecasting firm. And next year, if the board's majority opinion is correct, the slowdown should cross the line into a growth recession. That is usually defined as a continuing increase in national output of goods and services, but one too puny to keep unemployment from...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Quarterly Business Report: Goldilocks Gone | 10/12/1998 | See Source »

...stricken region. The decline limited the growth of U.S. corporate earnings--a key determinant of stock prices--with industries from chemicals to aerospace reporting lower profits in the second quarter than in the same period a year ago. "Asia is unpredictable," says Allen Sinai, chief global economist for Primark Decision Economics. "I can't guarantee that there will be no recession in the U.S. next year because no one can be sure about Asia." Observes David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor's DRI: "Asia scares...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Can We Bear To Keep Buying? | 8/17/1998 | See Source »

Sinai, who is chief global economist of Primark Decision Economics, the Boston-based econometric prognosticator, forecasts a profit rise of 4% this year and 5% next. But he notes that his figures are below the lowest estimates being made by Wall Street analysts. He expects--"by the end of the summer"--a correction of 10% to 15% in today's stratospheric stock-market prices that will interrupt a long-term bull trend. Varvares is both more and less optimistic. He foresees only an 8% drop in the Dow Jones industrial average but one that will fall "on a sustained basis...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Quarterly Business Report: As Good as It Gets | 6/22/1998 | See Source »

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