Word: programer
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...many cars were sold through the program? The official total sales that were directly because of the program will be right around 700,000 units. The average incentive - based on the most recent data available - was around $4,200. If we simply divide $3 billion by $4,200, we get about 714,000 units. The original forecast for 250,000 units was based on the initial $1 billion budget for the program...
...benefited from the program? From the manufacturers' perspective, everybody except for the luxury carmakers. Hyundai, Kia, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, as well as Ford and GM's small-car lineups all experienced sizable sales increases. The perfect vehicle for the program was the sub-$20K midsize compact car. You will have a tough time finding any inventory that fits that description in most dealer lots today...
More importantly, the program was a lifeline thrown at severely cash-strapped dealers. Sales were up. So were the profits. Consumers tend to drop their guards when there are big incentives, assuming that they will get great deals no matter what. As the clunker sales reached a fevered pitch, I think it's fair to say that the deals got much stingier. Many shoppers could have gotten better deals if they had done their homework before going to the dealership. (Watch a video about an optimistic Dodge dealer...
...will the economic stimulus from the program spread? The economic impact of the program is significant but short-lived. If we assume an average selling price of $25,000 for the program, and total unit sales of 700,000, the cash-for-clunkers program generated at least $17.5 billion of economic activity, not including incremental sales of additional products, such as extended warranties, alarm systems and financing revenue for the dealerships - as well as roughly $875 million in sales-tax revenue for state governments. When we add in the fiscal multiplier effect, the net impact of the program was easily...
Some economists worry that the clunker program borrowed sales from future months, so we'll soon be hit with an ugly payback. I think that the payback-factor predictions for this program have been greatly exaggerated. I would argue that hundreds of thousands of potential new car buyers actually postponed buying a car within the last year due to economic uncertainty, and some of them ended up buying within the last few weeks due to the CFC program. That is, it motivated people to buy who had not been planning to do so, which means there shouldn...