Word: putin
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...Russian observers see the latest wave of attacks as further evidence of a qualitative shift in the conflict. Putin's crackdown, which began with a full-scale military invasion of Chechnya in 1999, has not only failed to deliver on his promise to eliminate the nationalist rebellion in the largely Muslim territory; it has altered the nature of that rebellion, hardening its fighters, narrowing the differences between secular nationalists and radical Islamists, and putting the Islamists in the driving seat. Having failed to drive Russian forces out of Chechnya via guerrilla warfare, the rebels have resorted to a wider offensive...
...President Putin's stock response has been to blame the offensive on "international terrorism," a phrase that invokes al-Qaeda and sidesteps any acknowledgement that Russia may, in part, be reaping the whirlwind of what Putin has sown in Chechnya during his almost five years at the helm. Even in its most explicitly jihadist form, Chechen terrorism is a homegrown affair, although factions of the Chechen separatist movement have received financial and political support from Qaeda-aligned elements abroad - and a handful of Arab mujahedeen have long played a role in the Chechen insurgency. The Russian crackdown, which began late...
...invoking the specter of "international terrorism," President Putin looks to align himself with the U.S. and Western Europe in its campaign against al-Qaeda, at the same time as demanding their political support against the ongoing Chechen insurgency. And he got strong support this week from President Bush and the leaders of France and Germany for pursuing his fight. But if anything, Putin's experiences in Chechnya offer some important lessons for the global war against al-Qaeda...
...more important lesson from President Putin's war, of course, is that military means alone cannot snuff out a politically motivated insurgency. Instead, in Chechnya - as, perhaps, in the Palestinian territories - a military response that has left open no political track to more moderate nationalist elements has tended to work in the favor of the Islamists, and broaden their influence at the expense of secular nationlalists. Indeed, Chechnya today sees elements ranging from Mashkadov and Bashayev to disparate local commanders and even bandits and gangsters in broad consensus over fighting the Russians...
...resilience of the Chechen insurgency - and the increasing barbarity of its actions - put Putin in something of a bind. He staked his political career on his promise to eliminate the Chechen separatist movement, and he has obviously failed to achieve this. The failure may be not simply tactical, but strategic. By closing down the political track of dialogue with the nationalists, Putin has committed himself to pursuit of a military victory. And not only has such a victory proved elusive; its pursuit has seen the Chechen insurgency evolve into something a lot nastier and more dangerous. Then again, Chechens blowing...