Word: pyongyang
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...countries whose nuclear programs have raised alarms of late may be cooperating more closely than previously known. North Korea agreed six years ago to stop flight-testing longer-range ballistic missiles, which could deliver nuclear or chemical warheads, in exchange for relief from U.S. economic sanctions. Pyongyang still claims it is sticking to the deal, but some Administration officials think it may be cheating by using Iran as its proxy...
...that hasn't led to much clarity about what to do. Two questions occupy the Bush team's sometimes highly divided proliferation squads: Just what is the nature of Pyongyang's arsenal? And what, if anything, can be done about it? The type and number of weapons Kim has remain unknown. Most analysts think the count is fewer than a dozen. Size actually matters more than quantity: the smaller the warhead, the easier it is to mount it in an airplane or atop a missile. Several of Pyongyang's medium-range systems, if operational, could reach Japan; one long-range...
...prospect the Administration rejects out of hand. The U.S. still hopes to confront the North Koreans in a multilateral setting, and the linchpin of that strategy is China. Bush has long believed that Beijing has the most to gain and lose on the Korean peninsula and would quietly pressure Pyongyang to give up its nuclear ambitions. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Beijing has been North Korea's closest ally, funneling oil and food. China would have to absorb many refugees if Kim's regime failed...
...wake of Pyongyang's latest fulminations, the Administration is counting on China to drag the North Koreans back to the six-party table--a role China embraced in a phone call between Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing and Secretary Rice on Saturday night. "China will stay in touch with all relevant parties," Li told her. James Lilley, who was ambassador to both China and South Korea in the 1980s, says Pyongyang's tactics are designed to stall for time and force concessions from outsiders before sitting down to talk again. The only way to counter it, he believes, is to take...
That may be the best bet for averting a crisis. But China has yet to sign on to a hard line. Beijing last month sent a Foreign Ministry diplomat to Pyongyang to discuss restarting the talks but never threatened to cut off aid. Its official returned without a deal and convinced that the North's resolve was unbreakable. "Even if China cuts aid," says a member of China's foreign policy establishment who was briefed on the meetings, "they will not weaken." Unless the U.S. and its allies get tough and together in a hurry, the world may soon find...