Word: quarterly
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...government reported that fourth quarter GDP contracted at an annual rate of 3.8%. That does not approach the 7.8% in the second quarter of 1980 or the 10.4% post-war record set in the first quarter of 1958. The consensus estimate among analysts was for a 5.4% drop...
...fourth quarter number was helped somewhat by a build-up in inventories. Real final sales for domestic product, which excludes inventories, decreased 5.1% in the fourth quarter. This is the biggest drop since 1980. (See pictures of the 1958 recession...
...concerns that economists will have to have is whether some of the effects of consumer spending and corporate investments have slipped into the current quarter. If so, that will have to be added to GDP contraction which is already almost certainly much worse than in Q4. Based on early statistics about consumer confidence, employment, real estate prices, and capital spending a GDP contraction in the range of 10% should not be a surprise...
...terrible because, obviously, it hurts. But as a team of researchers pointed out last year in a study in the journal Psychological Science, sadness can stimulate something this economy badly needs: consumer spending. According to the Department of Commerce, just when the economy was tanking during the third quarter of last year, the personal-savings rate jumped to its highest level in nearly four years. In the long term, a higher savings rate will help prevent future credit meltdowns, but most economists agree that in the short term, we need to stop stuffing paychecks into mattresses. Being sad can help...
...Following the group’s initial protests, Harvard sharply reduced payments to its chief investors to less than a quarter of their 2003 levels, and the scrutiny over salaries played a part in prompting an exodus of money managers that included HMC’s long-time CEO Jack R. Meyer...