Word: quarterly
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...haven't been through anything this bad in a while. The last time the economy shrank faster than 3% was in the first quarter of 1982, when GDP dropped at a 6.4% annual rate. It hasn't exceeded Goldman's worst-case forecast of -7.8% since the first quarter of 1958, when...
...known as Dr. Doom - whose current forecast is about -4%. Lots of Wall Street economists less renowned for their gloominess have by now moved past the -3% mark. In fact, one explanation for the stock market's horrible week could be that the realization of just how bad the quarter will be is finally sinking in among investors. (See the Top 10 Dow Jones drops...
...While -10.4% sounds awful, nobody ever talks about the Great Depression of 1958. That's because the economy came roaring back later that year. This was in part a characteristic of the manufacturing-dominated economy of those days. GDP and employment would shrink precipitously one quarter as factories temporarily shut down to work off an inventory glut, then jump almost as much when they reopened. Things don't really work that way anymore - the jobs disappearing now aren't temporary layoffs, and the increased reliance on debt in the U.S. economy may bring self-reinforcing downward pressures that weren...
...result, hardly anyone is expecting a big snapback in the first quarter of next year. Then again, nobody really knows what to expect. There's far less consensus among economists about the first quarter than about the one we're in now. Some (Merrill Lynch's David Rosenberg is an example) think it will be even worse than the current quarter. Others (the majority) think it will be better. But none of that means very much, given that economists are close to hopeless at predicting that far into the future in times as tumultuous as these. It's the performance...
...quarter: Pizzotti scrambles to the 25, and it's a first down. Pizzotti will kneel out the clock on a 9-1, Ivy Championship season...