Word: rafah
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Egypt, of course, shares Abbas' hostility toward Hamas, originally a creation of the banned but widely popular Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. Earlier this year, Hamas created a crisis for the Egyptian regime by blowing a hole in the wall at Rafah, allowing Palestinians to pour into Egypt to buy up basic supplies. Embarrassed and facing domestic and Arab pressure, President Hosni Mubarak left the breach open for the best part of a week before sealing it and renewing Egypt's insistence that it would open the border crossing only to Abbas' men. Now, in the midst of a new political firestorm...
...with the most influence over Hamas. In the power struggle that pits Egypt and the Palestinian Authority against Hamas and its regional backers, the Islamists may be betting that the backlash sparked by the Israeli raids will weaken the resolve of Cairo and Ramallah to keep Hamas' hands off Rafah. But Cairo and Ramallah may be hoping that the punishment inflicted on Gaza by Israel will prompt Palestinians to turn on Hamas. So far, the smart money says that Abbas is paying the higher political price. By contrast, Israel's current leaders may have slightly improved their chances of reeling...
Hamas' demand on the border crossings, though, is directed as much at Egypt as it is at Israel. Hamas' primary objective, in fact, is to open the border gate between Egypt and Gaza at Rafah, which was closed by Cairo at the request of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas when his forces were driven out of Gaza by Hamas 18 months ago. Rafah, as the Palestinians' only entry point to the outside world not controlled by Israel, represents the closest thing to a symbol of Palestinian sovereignty, which is precisely why Hamas is so keen to control...
...next phase, Israel and Hamas will start indirect talks, through the Egyptians, to trade captured Israeli soldier Corporal Gilad Shalit for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Once Shalit is freed, says Israeli negotiator Amos Gilad, Israel will then agree to allow the reopening of Rafah, the main crossing between Gaza and Egypt, as long as it is manned by European Union monitors. Egypt will also undertake the near-impossible task of stopping arms from being smuggled into Gaza; Israelis are worried, with good reason, that Hamas will use the truce to rearm itself with longer-range and more accurate missiles...
...Bets are on Gaza to explode first. Although Hamas claimed that Monday's suicide bomber in Dimona, the first in a year, came from the West Bank, the Israelis still are investigating whether he got into the country from Gaza via Egypt while the border fence at Rafah was breached. It's certainly possible. An estimated 750,000 Palestinians, half of Gaza's population, crossed into Egypt and back, primarily to shop for basic goods unavailable at home...