Word: rasmussen
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...lead over McCain was expanding. Two of them - one by Newsweek, the other by the Los Angeles Times - showed his lead jumping to double-digits. The McCain campaign quickly - and rightly - criticized the polls' methodology, claiming each over-sampled self-identified Democrats. Other polls, like those by Gallup, Rasmussen and Time, suggest a narrower race. But the Obama folks capitalized on the perception shift by dispatching campaign manager David Plouffe to Washington, where he gave a 12-slide PowerPoint presentation demonstrating just how confident they are. Plouffe identified 18 "battleground" states, all but four of which (Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan...
...Rasmussen poll out Friday tries to peel back some of these issues, and the answers are not particularly heartening for Obama. In a survey of 800 likely voters, Rasmussen finds that 58% think Obama has denounced Wright because it's politically convenient, while 30% say he did so because he was outraged (13% say they're not sure). Only 33% say they think Obama was surprised by Wright's views, while 52% say they think...
...same time, two other polls, ARG and Rasmussen, show Obama leading by 24 and 14 percentage points respectively. And although the primary is open, voters must have registered 30 days ago to vote, which could limit the number of Republicans making a last-minute decision to back Clinton. But the limited registration may also hurt Obama. "The heat of a campaign matters in getting people engaged," says Bob Brown, a political science professor at the University of Mississippi. "Thirty days ago, that heat didn't exist in Mississippi - not nearly as much as it does now, anyway...
...Tennessee, the division along racial lines is clear. With one exception the state's black Democratic legislators all support Obama; only state Sen. Thelma Harper supports Clinton, and Saturday's Rasmussen poll revealed Obama has the support of 71% of the state's black Democrats...
Meanwhile, the G.O.P. race is too close to call. Expected to endorse McCain, Fred Thompson has not yet done so, and the latest Rasmussen poll, released Saturday, reveals a tight race between McCain, with a 32% lead in the Republican primary; Mitt Romney, with 29% of Republican support; and Mike Huckabee, with 23%. That is a significant change from polls conducted immediately after Thompson's withdrawal, which gave Huckabee, who has the support of former state Republican Party chairman John Saltsman and of Tennessee Right to Life, up to a 37% lead...