Word: rate
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...Slippery statistics like this are everywhere. Take survival rates - which seem so clear but can be anything but. A 2006 study of CT scan screening for lung cancer seemed to produce results that were flat-out dazzling: Of the 174,000 people who are given a lung cancer diagnosis each year, only 5% are still alive 10 years later. But when CT scans were used to detect tumors early, the survival rate leaped to a stunning...
...receive your diagnosis at age 67, you'll be gone well before the 10-year threshold is reached. Now imagine a new technology that spots early signs of the disease at age 57. If everyone gets the test, the 10-year survival rate soars to 100%, but no one in fact lives a single day longer. As with Zocor, early CT scans and early detection may in fact make a difference in how long someone lives, but in order to determine how big that difference is, you need to peel back the numbers and look more closely at individual cases...
...next quarter, the rate at which people are losing their jobs may slow, but average wages will probably drop sharply at the same time. The effect of fewer people losing jobs while those who are working make less is no clear sign that the economic world is getting better. GDP numbers which are significantly influenced by dangerous trends in inventories like the Q4 2008 figure defy clear interpretation...
...Over the last six months, these figures have usually been worse than analysts have forecast and there is not much in the way of anecdotal data to support anything other than the fact that figures will keep getting worse. The most important bellwether for economic activity may be the rate of contraction in manufacturing. In the U.S., those numbers are bad. In parts of Asia and Europe the figures are much worse. If the American consumer was showing any signs of life there should be an uptick in exports from large manufacturing countries like China. That is not happening...
...state level, Missouri is leading the country by phasing out its large juvenile-detention institutions in favor of smaller facilities, closer to kids' homes, that offer more specialized services, like mental-health and drug counseling and education. In the process, the state claims to have reduced recidivism rates for juvenile offenders to 10%, compared with a national rate of 40% to 50%. "We cannot incarcerate our way out of this problem of juvenile crime," says Shay Bilchik, director of Georgetown University's Center for Juvenile Justice Reform, who served as Clinton's point person on juvenile issues at the Justice...