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...recent weeks, the Obama Administration has taken heat for having underestimated how bad the economy would get. With the unemployment rate surpassing the Administration's best predictions, ABC's George Stephanopoulos asked Vice President Joe Biden if the stimulus package was too small or if the White House simply didn't have a handle on the seriousness of our economic ills. When an interviewer posed a similar question on National Public Radio, the chair of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, Christina Romer, replied, "It's important to realize that none of us has a crystal ball...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Why Are Economists So Bad at Forecasting? | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

Even with averaging, though, forecasts can still be wildly disappointing - as the Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters shows. In mid-February, the economists collectively predicted a second-quarter unemployment rate of 8.3%. The difference between that and the actual figure, 9.3%, translates into 1.5 million more people unemployed...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Why Are Economists So Bad at Forecasting? | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...what's actually going on inside these young brains? Scientists asked 34 healthy kids, ages 8 to 17, to look at pictures of 40 other boys and girls and judge how much they would like to interact with them online. The kids were asked to rate those in the photos on a scale from 0 ("not interested at all") to 100 ("very interested"). The NIMH scientists told the kids that their ratings would be revealed to the boys and girls in the pictures, and the scientists said they would arrange online chats between the kids and those they liked...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Why Girls Have BFFs and Boys Hang Out in Packs | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...develop new ways of better tying compensation to long-term risks. That leaves the White House vulnerable in the coming months. If Wall Street decides to cash in on its recent winnings despite the public rhetoric of the Administration, the contrast with the nation's still growing unemployment rate couldn't be starker. "It's just got to feel wrong to a lot of people," says Douglas Elliott, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, speaking of the Goldman compensation announcement. "It seems to me a political mistake...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Goldman's Sudden Boom Could Be a Bust for Obama | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...departed for the U.S. in 2002, the Sharks went from national champions to perennial league basement dwellers. At the same time, the Chinese Basketball Association (CBA) has languished, in part because young Chinese players would prefer to watch the high-octane antics of the NBA rather than the second-rate efforts of their national league, where poor coaching and antiquated playbooks have stunted the game. It doesn't help, either, that China's best players, like Yao and the New Jersey Nets' Yi Jianlian, have fled the CBA for the klieg lights of the North American league...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Semi-Pro: Yao Ming Buys His Former Chinese Team | 7/16/2009 | See Source »

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