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...Administration's initial forecast, provided by the Office of Management and Budget, never had a chance. While the costs in the document might have been controlled well enough to meet expense estimates, the rate at which the economy is coming unhinged always meant that the amount of money which was supposed to come in from taxes was always at risk. OMB now says tax receipts will drop a breathtaking 15% compared with last year. (See pictures of the Top 10 scared traders...
...Administration may find that it would be better off to hold its tongue about the rate at which the deficit is growing. It is still forecasting that GDP will only drop 1.2% in 2009. That number is clearly improbable which should shake whatever confidence the taxpayers have in the forecast. Anyone watching the process of budget revision as the bottom line gets progressively worse understands that a $2 trillion deficit for the year is possible, and perhaps likely...
...rise in the rate of unemployment would have to be reversed almost immediately, and the sales in the private sector would have to make an unprecedented rebound if the Administration is to have any chance of holding the line at a $1.8 trillion. Neither of those things is going to happen. (See pictures of the global financial crisis...
...core of the stimulus effort is to drop taxes to improve consumer spending and give financial aid to projects that should help move up employment. Until the American consumer begins to move back into the market and increase demand though normal spending, U.S. GDP will not rise and the rate at which the U.S. imports goods from China will not recovery. (See pictures of China's wild side...
...while the LSE predicts the market for new listings will recover next year, expect "a wholesale change in the way AIM looks," says Cowie. U.K.-based firms have quit the market at more than twice the rate of overseas businesses in the last 18 months, he says, and the dwindling presence of smaller companies means the firms that remain will be bigger, forcing up the exchange's average market cap. Investors already look set to buy in. The AIM index is still down year-on-year but it's up 30% so far this year, far more than its bigger...