Word: reals
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...hard to imagine that business can do well unless the consumer is reasonably healthy. But I think the conventional wisdom has become excessively pessimistic about the condition of the U.S. consumer. People have forgotten the effect that rising equity prices as well as the stabilization of real estate - maybe even a few upticks in residential real estate - will have on the consumer's net worth and his spending-saving behavior...
...worried about a China bubble? The definite risk was that they were expanding and stimulating so rapidly, it was getting out of control, and that speculation, particularly in real estate, was going to be a real problem. But the latest data suggests just the opposite. While the bears are talking bubble, the new numbers show that industrial production slowed in the most recent month, and also that the volume of new loans made in July was down pretty dramatically. That's good news. (See pictures of the global financial crisis...
...very complex machinery and equipment like that, that most other countries can't produce themselves. Taiwan is a more component supplier of electronics. But the Taiwan bulls would argue that Taiwan is going to become the newest province of China; there is going to be a huge flow of real estate investment and industrial investment by mainland Chinese into Taiwan. I have trouble believing that...
...Taiwan, the indigenous population is actually declining, and the manufacturing base is really located in China rather than Taiwan. I don't see what the attraction is going to be for Chinese industrial investments or for Chinese real estate investments in Taiwan. I just don't find Taiwan has that attraction for the Chinese that Hong Kong does...
...France and Germany manage to continue growing along with smaller economies like Greece and Portugal, Moec warns that broader European recovery will be a sluggish affair. Countries like the U.K., Spain, and Ireland - which each suffer from some combination of excessive household debt and structural over-reliance on real estate and financial industries - risk taking far longer to remedy their economic ailments, which would slow a regional rebound. Ditto Italy, whose consistent under-performance is rooted in competitive weaknesses that couldn't be cured even during good times. (Read: "In Hard Times, Olympic Plans Go On a Budget...