Word: rebounds
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There have been some signs, though fleeting, of a possible economic rebound. What's the consumer thinking right now? What is fundamentally different about the recession, except for the ones we had in the 1930s, is that we're putting bookmarks in our brains. When icons that we defined as stable, like Lehman Brothers, fall apart, you are suddenly questioning everything around you. So consumers now, if things start to get better, will not run into the stores and start consuming like there had never been a recession. That will not happen. At the end of the day, consumers will...
...global economy improves, based on their own specific supply-and-demand conditions. This makes timing a turnaround complicated. Rogers says he expects commodities prices to be among the first to rise, out of all asset classes, when economic growth begins to return. Other experts argue against a rapid rebound, because inventories are high for commodities such as oil, and because demand for natural resources has been so thoroughly squelched in some industries that it may not fully recover any time soon. Francisco Blanch, head of commodities research for Merrill Lynch in London, says he doesn't expect overall demand will...
Here's a matrix of investments that do well, based on the shape of an economic recovery and your age. But don't bet your retirement on any one scenario - diversification works in a rebound...
Which leaves net exports. The last time the U.S. actually exported more goods and services than it imported was in 1980, and a positive trade balance isn't in the cards anytime soon. But if U.S. consumer spending remains anemic, a rebound overseas could shrink the trade deficit and thus boost the economy. There's just no concrete evidence of that happening yet - the March trade figures, released on Tuesday, showed exports declining faster than imports for the month. Over the somewhat longer term, the big question is whether the global economy can be rebalanced in a way so that...
...rebound? Its owner, the London Stock Exchange (LSE), is currently lobbying the government against rules that forbid Venture Capital Trusts (VCTs) from investing in AIM firms above a certain size. The limits have virtually wiped out funding from that source. The Exchange also wants VCTs to be able to pick up shares in the secondary market - something they're currently prevented from doing - not solely through new listings. The LSE also recently launched a service providing research on AIM companies which lack the kind of independent analysis wavering investors are after. (See pictures of the global financial crisis...