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Call it the Bed Bath & Beyond barometer. Some recent data indicate that as consumers prepare to open up their wallets, they'll be very likely to spruce up their homes. According to a survey from WSL Strategic Retail, of shoppers who say they want to splurge, 44% want to do so on their digs. NPD Group, a market-research firm, also found that when shoppers are asked where they are most likely to spend money, a majority point to their homes. "The nest is where we'll likely see the early signs of a recovery," says Marshal Cohen, a retail...
...government tolerated a limited amount of market reform, including the proliferation of farmers' markets and the tilling of private plots. But in 2005, Pyongyang reversed course and began re-establishing the state's dominance over food distribution. Officials have even slapped new restrictions on the operation of marketplaces in recent years. (See pictures of Kim Jong...
Noland argues that this "almost back-to-the-future reversion of economic policy" stems from the same root cause as Pyongyang's recent belligerence: North Korean politics. North Korea watchers speculate that Kim Jong Il, who likely suffered a stroke last year, is maneuvering to install his son, Kim Jong Un, as his successor, and that Pyongyang's May nuclear test, recent war threats and anticipated long-range missile launch are all part of an effort to build support for the Kims, especially among the country's powerful military brass. Economic policy, Noland says, has become tied...
That behavior can be seen in Pyongyang's treatment in recent weeks of an industrial park just north of the border. The Kaesong industrial zone, opened in 2004, was developed mainly by South Korea as part of Seoul's attempts to engage its northern neighbor through economic cooperation, and today it houses more than 100 South Korean companies that employ about 40,000 North Koreans. The zone has been a major source of trade for North Korea, but that hasn't stopped Pyongyang from threatening its operations. In May, North Korean officials said that all contracts regarding the South Korean...
That fact makes Beijing's policy toward North Korea even more central in any effort to convince Pyongyang to give up its nuclear-weapons program. But the North's recent disregard for its own economic conditions doesn't bode well for any attempt to use financial incentives to woo Pyongyang into better behavior. "They may still negotiate for some kind of deal," Noland says. "But I don't think we're going to get denuclearization" in the near term. That means North Korea's economy, just like its relations with the outside world, is likely to get worse...