Word: reformations
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...piece of White House theater, this one has a very specific audience in mind: the anti-immigration right wing of the Republican Party. It is this deeply skeptical crowd Bush must win over if he is to get the last potential domestic policy achievement of his Presidency: "comprehensive immigration reform." And, with Congress' summer recess and the 2008 Presidential primaries approaching, time is running...
...President's "comprehensive" reform includes more than border security, and that's where conservative skepticism comes in. His proposals, unveiled to Democrats for the first time two weeks ago, aim to create not just tougher border security and tighter domestic enforcement at work sites, but also a new guest worker program and a solution for the 11-12 million illegal immigrants in the country. Though these goals are associated with a softer line on immigration, under his new plan, Bush has played to the hard-line consensus among Republicans on these issues...
...appearance of conflict between the two men, each is well aware that he needs to the other to get an immigration reform bill passed - that's why they've been in deep discussions on the issue since the start this year. The positions each is taking now are less oriented toward coercing the other side than toward securing maximum support from within their own party. By giving the appearance of a deep Democrat-Republican divide, they increase the chances of winning their skeptics over to a compromise. Bush and Kennedy will have more leeway to make small concessions on fines...
...smart strategy, but it faces tough challenges, as both men are finding it harder to rally even centrist support than it was a year ago. Thanks to the 2008 elections, two key Republican backers of last year's effort at immigration reform, John McCain and Sam Brownback, have disappeared down the campaign trail. McCain had previously united with Kennedy to form a central Senate bloc for a compromise, while Brownback played a key role representing the compassionate right. Mel Martinez, a key Hispanic Republican voice in the debate, has also gone quiet since taking over the Republican National Committee...
...part, Kennedy must deliver Democrats who in strictly political terms have no reason to back reform. The new Congress, under Democratic control, has had a very effective three-month run blocking Bush on everything from domestic proposals to foreign affairs and the war in Iraq. Handing the President a win on a major issue like immigration reform in the run-up to the 2008 elections might be good policy, but it would be bad politics...