Word: regionals
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Anyone visiting Prague, Warsaw, or Budapest in recent weeks would have found beautiful old cities in a rather depressed mood. Despite the arrival of spring, the political and economic news across the region is gloomy at best. Eastern Europe’s emerging economies have been some of the worst hit by the current economic crisis—making unemployment rise, threatening their ability to roll over foreign debt, and toppling governments. As a recent International Monetary Fund paper proposes, the best way forward may be a European answer to an Eastern European problem: early adoption of the euro...
...Hungary, it becomes clear that the last has taken much more debt from foreign markets—in a way that may have been problematic even without a global economic crisis. But, in the current scenario, investors that had previously been attracted to the generous interest rates of the region have fled as fast as possible. And very few remain, making it very hard for these countries to roll over debt or put in place counter-cyclical measures to ease the effects of the global crisis. In a way, it has been like the Tequila Effect in Mexico...
...facts. The Polish zloty has lost a third of its value against the euro in just a few months, but that has not made its exports more competitive, since they have plunged along with global economic trade. The Czech Republic, arguably one of the most respectable governments in the region, has seen its prime minister resign right in the middle of its European Union presidency—what was a time to shine internationally has become a time for embarrassment as the Parliament looks for a new coalition leader...
...overseen by the ECB. But, as it turns out, the current crisis renders impossible many of the conditions implicit in the plan, particularly when it comes to fiscal balance (which everyone is throwing by the wayside) and indebtedness (which has been a problem for a long time in the region). The problem is significant because, if things continue deteriorating, it may pull the region farther and farther away from Europe, in a way that could hurt these countries in the long run. And given the many problems they are now facing, the trade-off inherent in the adoption...
...most monetary matters, is long-term credibility. But for Europe, it is also about honoring standing promises. After all, the EU was part of the “value proposition” offered by the West after the communist grip on the region collapsed. It has arguably brought strengthened institutions, representative democracy, and better respect for human rights. Even though these countries may not be technically ready for the euro just yet, the ECB should push for its adoption in order to further integrate nations like Hungary and Poland. Only Europe can deliver them from a potentially catastrophic confidence crisis...