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Short-term retail optimism brings no cheer, though, to the economy's wise men, who talk mainly of an imminent downturn. "The odds now favor a U.S. recession," writes former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers in a newspaper column. "I'd put the number at about a 75% chance," says investing guru Jack Bogle on TV. "We are becoming more certain that the recession is either here or no more than two quarters away," warns Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg in a note to clients...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Bracing for a Recession | 11/29/2007 | See Source »

...none the week before the holiday. Lo and behold, the last week in October, I saw a shift from pumpkins and scarecrows to elves and ornaments - not a costume in sight, and Thanksgiving had just been left in the dust. It's disheartening that holidays have become a retailer's trap for the consumer and that we've lost their real meaning altogether. I am trying desperately to separate the real from the retail for my 2-year-old son. I had to chuckle while reading the article because just a couple of days before, he and I walked into...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Inbox | 11/28/2007 | See Source »

Hordes of frenzied shoppers had barely descended upon shopping malls and retail stores at the crack of dawn on the day now dubbed Black Friday when the breathless speculation about how weak or strong this year's holiday shopping season began. The dirty little secret, however, is that the day is actually not a very good predictor of holiday sales overall. "No matter how successful Black Friday is, it's the weeks before and after Christmas that will determine how successful of a holiday season it is," says Scott Krugman, of the National Retail Federation...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: The Myth of Black Friday | 11/27/2007 | See Source »

...case, it's still too early too tell how even Black Friday weekend will shake out. Retailers don't report their November sales until early December, and the estimates by research firms range from a glum 6% decrease in purchases by NPD Group to a cheery 7.2% increase as tallied by ShopperTrak in Chicago, Illinois. For its part, the National Retail Federation (NRF) estimated that mall shoppers spent $347.44 or 3.5% less this past weekend than they did over the same period last year...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: The Myth of Black Friday | 11/27/2007 | See Source »

...busy. Students will buy a lot of liquor.” According to the estimate by ShopperTrak, a sales research company, Friday’s nationwide sales rose 8.3 percent over last year. Nationwide store visits increased 4.8 percent, but overall spending decreased, according to the National Retail Federation. For those students who did remain on campus, Black Friday provided a chance to grab discounted items at the mall. Lisa M. Yu ’11 woke up at 5 a.m. with her roommate to purchase clothes and memory soft pillows as gifts for the upcoming holidays...

Author: By Kevin C. Ni, CONTRIBUTING WRITER | Title: Square Quiet Over Holiday | 11/26/2007 | See Source »

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