Word: retailing
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Coming off a better-than-expected holiday shopping season, retail experts are growing a bit more optimistic about the outlook for 2010, while consumers are expected to be, um, cheap. "We see a highly frugal consumer being thoughtful and cautious in the way they spend and the way they incur debt" for at least the first half of 2010, says Richard Jaffe, a managing director at Stifel Nicolaus...
...chilling frugality may remain in the air, but buds of optimism for retailers are sprouting nonetheless. The National Retail Federation (NRF), in its 2010 outlook released Tuesday, Jan. 26, expects retail sales to rise 2.5% on average in 2010, reversing the 2.5% decline seen in 2009. "As we continue to see signs of improvement throughout the U.S. economy in 2010, overall sentiment will begin to lift, making way for slight increases in consumer spending," said Rosalind Wells, NRF's chief economist. Although shoppers will continue to be "frugal," - yes, even she expects it - retailers will benefit from leaner, smarter inventories...
John Canally, an economist with LPL Financial, a broker-dealer firm in Boston, is even more bullish: he predicts retail sales could rise as much as 3.5%. If automobiles, gas stations, restaurants and services (such as dry cleaning and hair salons) - which are not included in the NRF numbers - are thrown into the mix, sales could rise as much as 6%, he says. Total retail sales rose 5.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis in December from the same month a year earlier but were off 6.2% in full year 2009 from 2008, according to the Department of Commerce. Canally expects...
...crystal balls differ. Karen Ghaffari, a managing director at Fitch Ratings, expects unemployment to peak in the second quarter at 10.4% before slowly starting to decline. "It will average 10.2% for the year," which will impact consumer spending and confidence, she says. Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates, a retail-consulting and investment-banking firm, is even more bearish, predicting unemployment will hit 11% before it peaks. "I think we're in for a very rough year...
...growth figure. Most had expected an 0.4% gain or more, thinking the economy would be fueled by the annual blast of Christmastime consumer spending as well as shoppers seeking to make purchases before an increase in the value-added tax went into effect in January. Though retail was one of the leading drivers of fourth-quarter growth, the boost in spending was offset by confounding slumps elsewhere in the economy...