Word: retailing
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...Yardeni, the chief economist for the C.J. Lawrence securities firm. Consumers are buckling beneath nearly $1 trillion in installment loans--almost twice the level of a decade ago. The average household carries $3,900 in credit-card debt alone. "Consumers are tapped out," says Peter Caruso, who follows retailing for Merrill Lynch. "There is no spending power left." Indeed, the government reported last week that retail sales dipped 0.2% in October compared with the previous month. Even the normally upbeat National Retail Federation expects holiday sales to increase no more than 5% this year, down from at least 7% growth...
...good news for shoppers is that hard-pressed retailers across the country are already slashing prices to bring people into their stores. "Consumers tell us that 50% off is what it will take to motivate them," says C. Britt Beemer, chairman of America's Research Group, which studies consumer behavior. Predicts Carl Steidtmann, chief economist for Management Horizons, the retail-consulting arm of Price Waterhouse: "This will be the most promotional Christmas in a decade. Most stores are in far worse financial shape than their customers...
Even before the bleak Christmas outlook, the U.S. retailing industry was suffering through a traumatic restructuring brought on by too few shoppers and too many stores. Retailers have nearly doubled their selling space since 1985, bringing it to a ratio of 19 sq. ft. for every man, woman and child in the U.S. "There will be closed and empty stores in almost every single mall in the country," says retail analyst Walter Loeb. "Some customers are going to feel like they're shopping in ghost towns...
Clothing from specialty apparel stores, like jerseys from the Limited or sweaters from Casual Corner, could languish on the racks this season. Reason: shoppers seem to view a lot of the current selections as the same old thing. According to Tactical Retail Solutions, a New York City consulting firm, sales of such clothing could dip 1.4% this Christmas from the level of last year. "It should tell you something," says Loeb, "when almost the entire interest in American fashion is on the color of Calvin Klein's underwear...
Nothing less than retail pride...