Word: retailing
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...real culprit of dropping economic indicators in these three Asian nations is as much the fragility of the middle classes as it is export problems. The American middle class, as it is constituted now, began to form after WWII. It has driving the construction, automotive, energy, travel, and retail industries and made each of them large and relatively stable, even when the economy moves toward deep trouble...
They're the undertakers of the retail business, charged with giving stores a graceful exit from this earth (at 60% off!). And when they tell strangers what they do for a living, it's sometimes hard to do it with great gusto. "'Liquidator' sure has a negative connotation, doesn't it?" admits Paul Erickson, CFO of the Great American Group, one of the largest liquidation firms in the country. The wife of Jim Schaye, CEO of Hudson Capital Partners, another major liquidator, didn't want her husband to broadcast his career when they first met. "She thought people would think...
...lethal combination of mismanagement, overexpansion and economic gloom is driving the boom in retail liquidations. During better days, a company could file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, and the banks would finance its operations until the shops could restructure. These so-called debtor-in-possession, or DIP, loans kept the company operating. In the early 1990s, for example, Macy's spent nearly two years in Chapter 11. Today, banks aren't keen to lend to anyone, least of all a retailer in miserable shape. (See the worst business deals...
...they sell enough stuff. These "guarantee" deals carry lots of risk. Take Circuit City. The four liquidation companies, the Great American Group, SB Capital Group, Tiger Capital Group and Hudson Capital Partners, together paid some $800 million for Circuit City's merchandise, which is worth around $1.7 billion at retail. The firms must also pay the company's expenses - payroll, rent and store operating costs - for the duration of the liquidation, which will likely take eight weeks. Here, Circuit City shifts the risk to the liquidators. Sure, the company is offering the liquidators $1.7 billion worth of electronics...
...Still, the transition from an outward-oriented growth model won't be easy. Though consumer spending has remained healthy - retail sales grew 19% in the fourth quarter - economists don't think the average Chinese has a big enough wallet to make up for weak demand overseas. "The reliance on the U.S. consumer as the buyer of last resort is going to have to change," says Michael Buchanan, chief Asia economist at Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong. He says "China has a long way to go in adjusting" to this fundamental change in the world economy...