Word: returns
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...Freedom" gave way to the more sobering "Blood-Stained Aura." This had been composed two years earlier as propaganda, commemorating the Chinese soldiers who fought in the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese conflict. Now the crowds sang the words in bitter reference to fallen students: "If I bid farewell and never return/ Will you comprehend? Will you understand...
...overnight. In fact, with asset-dependent U.S. households remaining income-short, overly indebted and savings-deficient, subdued consumption growth is likely for years. This is because the U.S. consumption share of real GDP, which hit a record 72.4% in the first quarter of 2009, needs, at a minimum, to return to its pre-bubble norm of 67%. That spells a sharp downshift in real consumption growth from the nearly 4% average pace of 1995 to 2007 to around 1.5% over the next three to five years. There will be years when the consumer falls short of that pace. The contraction...
...upbeat. While I no longer doubt that China's performance will be better than expected in 2009, there is good reason to be wary of extrapolation. China's incipient rebound relies on a timeworn stimulus formula: upping the ante on infrastructure spending to support growth in anticipation of a return of global demand for Chinese-made goods. It's the latter presumption that remains iffy as the U.S. opts for prudence over profligacy...
With two games left in this qualifying phase, the North is now in pole position to return to the global stage along with its southern neighbor. Iran, on the other hand, is floundering behind the Koreas and Saudi Arabia, and will need a miracle to make it to South Africa next summer...
...none of that changes the long-term reality of how indebted Americans are a structural issue that will require more than a couple of months to return to historic normalcy. A recent research note by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco points out that the ratio of household debt to personal disposable income a measure of how "leveraged" individuals are has barely budged from its 2007 high of 133%. In 1960, that ratio was 55% in 1960 and in the mid-1980s...