Word: rivlin
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...threatened by mounting layoffs. The TIME board predicted that the jobless rate will reach 11.3% in 1983's first quarter before beginning to drop slowly. Even by the end of 1983, unemployment will still be hovering around 10%. "The unemployment problem is not going away quickly," said Alice Rivlin, director of the Congressional Budget Office and a guest panelist last week...
...proposals to reduce unemployment by creating hundreds of thousands of public works jobs. TIME's economists doubted that this strategy could have much impact. Similar programs enacted during recessions in the 1970s took a long time to reach full steam and had little lasting effect on unemployment. Said Rivlin: "The experience of the past decade has made economists a lot more skeptical about using the federal budget to create new jobs." Added Schultze: "We ought to put people back to work, as much as possible, in the jobs they were doing before the recession began. In other words...
...Said Rivlin of Congress's frustrating battle to pare spending: "The whole struggle has been terribly discouraging. Congress's tax-increase and spending-cut actions have been considerable, but at the same time, the recovery has been weaker than had been assumed in the spring, and as a result, revenues have tended to be lower. As a consequence, the best that can be said is that the deficit has leveled off from an increase that otherwise would have happened...
...members agreed that further curbs in spending will be difficult. Rivlin pointed out that in 1985 nearly $700 billion of the projected budget of $910 billion will go for defense, interest payments on the national debt, and pension payments such as Social Security and Medicare. President Reagan has ruled out defense cuts, and spending in the other areas can be reduced only if the Administration overcomes powerful congressional lobbies...
...reduce the deficit to $100 billion by 1985, said Rivlin, would mean cutting more than 25% out of all other Government programs, from space exploration to river dredging. Yet those areas have already sustained deep cuts in budget allocations under the Reagan Administration...