Word: roache
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...University. He sees a sharp, possibly year-long U.S. recession and a global slowdown. Despite Asia's torrid growth, consumers in China and India accounted for only $1.6 billion of the world's spending last year, a tiny fraction of the $9.5 trillion spent by Americans, according to Stephen Roach, head of Morgan Stanley's business in Asia. It's impossible to pull U.S. spending back without sending ripples through the rest of the world...
...real economic trouble. Most economists now believe the U.S. is either already - or soon will be - in its first recession since 2001, and that this one could be a doozy. "The asset bubbles underpinning the US economy have started to unwind the other way," says Stephen Roach, Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. "This recession was triggered by the bursting of the housing bubble and the bursting of the credit bubble and those developments will run their course [even with the rate cuts...
...developing nations have been anything but safe havens in the recent turmoil, indicating that the decoupling theory will now be tested with a vengeance. "There's no question the slump in the US will have hurt [Asia's] exports," says Shanghai-based economist Andy Xie. Morgan Stanley's Roach believes decoupling is "one of those nice theories you hear at the top of market bubbles." The fact is, Roach argues, "that Asian consumers are too small to make up for the void created by U.S. consumption...
...University. He sees a sharp, possibly year-long U.S. recession and a global slowdown. Despite Asia's torrid growth, consumers in China and India accounted for only $1.6 trillion of the world's spending last year, a tiny fraction of the $9.5 trillion spent by Americans, according to Stephen Roach, head of Morgan Stanley's business in Asia. It's impossible to pull U.S. spending back without sending ripples through the rest of the world...
...gradual. Consumer spending used to make up about 67% of all the economic activity in the U.S., but over the past few years, it's ratcheted up to around 72%. "If we take the 5 percentage points out this year, it will be the mother of all U.S. recessions," Roach says. But putting the adjustment off indefinitely isn't a great idea either. "It's just pushing the fundamental problem down the road," says Columbia University economist and Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz. "The problem with the U.S. is excessive consumption...