Word: roaches
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...government reports record low unemployment. On CNBC economist Stephen Roach at Morgan Stanley declares that everyone who wants a job has one. He expects an inflationary spiral in wages...
This is the way the world ends--not with a bang but a high school diploma. If you went to South Tahoe High School, in South Lake Tahoe, Calif., you grew up in a place so beautiful, placid and secure that you can make the extraordinary statement of Cinnamon Roach, Class of '97: "I've never known conflict." It can't be easy to put a place like that behind you, but something tells you, "Go, girl...
...companies--and especially its workers--in the early part of the decade has made firms brutally competitive. And the deregulation that began with airlines and trucking in the 1970s and '80s is bringing price pressure to bear on such once cozy fields as utilities and telecommunications. Says Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley's chief economist: "Deregulation is a critical dynamic in spreading the forces of competition...
...TIME board consists of former Fed vice chairman Alan Blinder, now at Princeton University; former Reagan adviser Martin Feldstein, now at Harvard University; Stephen Roach from Morgan Stanley; Allen Sinai from Primark Decision Economics; Edward Yardeni from Deutsche Morgan Grenfell; and J. Antonio Villamil from Washington Economics Group. An influential lot, for sure. Yet they can't measure whether computers are making people more productive. They can't agree on whether Americans are better or worse off than a few years ago. They don't know if the economy can grow faster and unemployment recede further without whipping up inflation...
...upshot is that Roach believes gross domestic product can grow safely at 2% to 2.5% a year, yet Sinai thinks it's 2.5% to 3%, and Yardeni says maybe 4%--big discrepancies in an $8 trillion economy that has lately been exceeding all those figures. The difference between 2.5% and 4% growth is $120 billion. That'd put a new car in a few driveways. The knowledge gap is widest when productivity is assessed. We assume that computers increase employee output. But Blinder wonders if we aren't using computers to get the usual amount of work done and then...