Word: romneys
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Luckily for Giuliani and Romney, most Republicans don't associate them with the surge, as they do John McCain. Most either don't know what the GOP front runners think or think they agree with them and support a Baker-Hamilton-style drawdown. In a July Hotline poll, only 17% of Republicans knew that Giuliani opposes any troop withdrawal from Iraq, and only 12% knew that Romney did. For both men, that's good news. They don't want to be identified with a policy that's unpopular even among Republicans, let alone the rest of America. But they...
...Romney and Giuliani's solution: when asked about Iraq, they talk about terrorism. Writing in Foreign Affairs, Romney argued that "whether or not the current 'surge' in troop levels in Iraq succeeds," the U.S. faces "challenges that go far beyond any single nation or conflict." Giuliani told Fox News's Sean Hannity, "Whether Iraq turns out successfully ... we're still going to be at war." Romney and Giuliani also bash the Democrats as defeatists who don't recognize the jihadist threat and who want us to leave Iraq with our tail between our legs. In this way, they emphasize their...
...strategy has worked beautifully. But there's a problem. One way Romney and Giuliani have evaded clear answers on the surge is by delaying the question until September, when General David Petraeus will report on its progress. Now September is here. Petraeus will probably oppose any immediate troop withdrawal, deferring any drawdown until next spring. Bush and most conservative pundits will demand that the surge continue into 2008. And Romney and Giuliani will find it harder to bob and weave. The press, which has given both men an easy ride on the issue, may start turning the screws. With luck...
...what will Romney and Giuliani do if forced to finally come clean? They'll back the surge. Romney is running as the conservative candidate, so he can't alienate Iraq hard-liners. Neither can Giuliani, given his tough-on-terrorism persona. But once they back the surge, they'll get a taste of what McCain has been experiencing all year. The more they're defined by support for the war, the more Bush's unpopularity will become their own, especially among independents, the people who have turned against McCain en masse. Backing the surge will instantly weaken them...
...best thing for Romney and Giuliani would be for the White House and Congress to halt the surge and agree on a phased withdrawal. Then they could go back to talking about 9/11 while Iraq recedes as a partisan issue. But that's not likely to happen, because when it comes to Iraq, Bush is ignoring the polls. Romney and Giuliani should try it sometime...