Word: roper
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Candidate Tom Dewey, who kas always been a faithful reader of the pollster's barometer, was presented last week with a forecast of the political climate. Basing his conclusions on readings taken over the past four years, Pollster Elmo Roper predicted fair & warmer weather for the Republican ticket, with some danger of intermittent thundershowers...
...people made the biggest political news last week. They would rather have Ike Eisenhower for President than anyone else. A Roper poll showed that General Eisenhower, if he were the Republican candidate, would overwhelm Harry Truman; that if he were the Democratic candidate he would soundly beat any of the leading candidates (only Harold Stassen would give him a close race...
...Last week, sitting in his Princeton, N.J. office, Dr. George Horace Gallup riffled contentedly through the answers. A big, friendly, teddybear of a man with a passion for facts & figures, Pollster Gallup has been finding needles in the U.S. haystack for the past twelve years. Other pollsters, like Elmo Roper and Archibald Crossley, have been doing it just as long. But George Gallup's four-a-week releases to 126 U.S. newspapers have made the "Gallup Poll" a household word and Gallup the Babe Ruth of the polling profession...
...weighing the answers. In pollsters' jargon, that breaks down into such specific problems as how to get around the "prestige answer" (what the "respondent" thinks he ought to think) and how to evaluate the "intensity factor" (how strongly the "respondent" feels about it). To solve such difficulties Pollster Roper has developed the "cafeteria" question, which gives a choice of answers from soup to nuts. Pollster Gallup has developed a system called the "quintamensional plan of question design," which measures not only the yes & no, but also the "respondent's" knowledge and his reasons for & against any issue...
...underestimated Franklin Roosevelt's popular vote by 7% (Roper was off only 1%, Crossley was off 7%). But in 196 elections since then his average error in estimating the popular vote has never been greater than 4%; since 1940, never greater than 3%. In 1940 he called the turn within 3% (Roper was within 1%, Crossley within 4%); in 1944 within 1% of the civilian vote (Roper within less than 1% and Crossley within 2% of the combined civilian and soldier vote...