Word: ropers
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...dimensions of 1948, when virtually every opinion sampling was ushering New York's Thomas E. Dewey into the White House. Twenty years later, the memory of that year sends shudders down the spines of all pollsters. One pollster called last week's results "a fiasco." Another, Burns Roper, observed: "If this statement of 'open lead' for Rockefeller is construed by readers as being designed to influence the outcome of the Republican Convention, it will be most unfortunate, both for the political process and for the public-opinion polling profession...
...pollsters rose to fame and influence on the basis of two celebrated debacles. During the 1936 presidential campaign, the old Literary Digest ran a mail poll and was wrong, while three more scientific pollsters were right. Those three-George H. Gallup, Elmo Roper and Archibald Crossley-conducted interviews among a predetermined mix of ethnic, income and age groups that seemed representative of the U.S. population. The other turning point was in 1948, when the pollsters again used this "quota system" of sampling-but were wrong. The U.S. had become so complex that picking just the right population...
Some critics have called for state control of polls, or outlawing them altogether, but that would probably amount to unconstitutional censorship of what has become a lively branch of journalism. Polls are here to stay, and pollsters have an obligation to make them even more honest and accurate. Gallup, Roper, Crossley, Mervin Field, Joe Belden and others have begun a drive for self-regulation, calling on their colleagues to disclose exactly what question was put to how many people, as well as when and where...
Wisconsinites can vote in either primary, regardless of personal party preference. Even before Rockefeller's withdrawal statement 10% of those who told Roper interviewers that they intended to vote in the Democratic primary described themselves as Republicans. The G.O.P. crossover may now be larger because of Republicans who want to influence a real contest...
...important difference between New Hampshire and Wisconsin is in the nature of anti-Johnson sentiment. In contrast to its prevote New Hampshire survey, the current Roper poll shows that most of those supporting McCarthy and Kennedy in Wisconsin are motivated by Viet...