Word: rosenberg
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Chances are, there is much more unraveling - deleveraging, to be technical about it - to come. Gluskin Sheff's Rosenberg looked at the ratio of household debt to total net worth and figured that for things to fall back in line with where they've been historically, Americans would have to get rid of some $3 trillion to $5 trillion in debt over the next few years. (Read "Lidia Bastianich Saves Our Dough.") Lansing and San Francisco Fed colleague Reuven Glick ran a simulation of what would happen if U.S. consumers followed a path similar to that of Japanese businesses...
...process is sure to take years, and until it is complete, the economy can't fully bounce back. "Even though we're probably past the worst in the business cycle and probably even in the bear market, we're talking about something much bigger here," says David Rosenberg, chief economist at money manager Gluskin Sheff. "The largest balance sheet in the world is the U.S. household balance sheet, and it's contracting at a record rate...
Economist David Rosenberg earned his way onto Institutional Investor's All-America Research Team for the past four years by making smart market calls for clients at Merrill Lynch. Now the chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff, a Toronto-based wealth-management firm, Rosenberg tells TIME contributing editor John Curran why he thinks this market rally is headed for trouble...
...TIME: We've got a pretty good market rally; consumer confidence is up. What's not to like? Rosenberg: There's absolutely nothing wrong with consumer confidence going up, but it's really a matter of watching what consumers are doing as opposed to what they're saying. If you take a look at the retail sales data over the past couple of months, it has moved back down. It looks like consumer spending, after a bit of an increase in the first quarter - mostly just bargain-hunting in January - is also relapsing in the second quarter...
Colom has said the Rosenberg video is part of a right-wing conspiracy designed to destabilize the government and ultimately bring him down. In a broadcast interview, he suggested that Rosenberg was coerced into making the video. Colom pointed to a radio journalist, Mario David Garcia, as the key link to the conspiracy. Garcia, a presidential candidate for an ultra-right-wing party in the 1980s, told TIME he helped Rosenberg record the video in his office the week before the murder. "It's outrageous. There was never any coercion," Garcia says. "I even left the office while...