Word: roubini
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Economist Nouriel Roubini, chairman of New York City - based research firm RGE Monitor, earned the nickname "Dr. Doom" by warning as early as 2005 that America's speculative housing boom could trigger an economic crisis. At the time, he was dismissed by many as a perpetual pessimist. Today, he's a sought-after analyst and a popular guest on financial-news programs and websites - and he's as gloomy as ever. Over breakfast in Hong Kong recently, the New York University professor talked with TIME's Michael Schuman about the perils that lie ahead if governments do not do more...
...Read a Q&A with economist Nouriel Roubini...
...Last year, the omnipresent economist, Nouriel Roubini, told Barron's that 1,400 banks would fail during the current economic crisis. Investment bank RBC Capital puts the figure at 1,000. Since there is no way to know how large the deposits at any of these institutions are, the amount of exposure the FDIC faces is impossible to forecast. But, it will be more than the $22 billion prediction. If 500 banks fail, which are fewer than those that failed in the S&L crisis, the figure is probably ten times that...
...billion in home loans outstanding - more than its competitors. Worse, Countrywide, by nearly all accounts, had shockingly low lending standards. Chalk up a higher-than-average $40 billion in losses there. On top of that, BofA has made $87 billion in loans to commercial real estate developers. Roubini predicts 17% of those loans will go bad as developers hit the skids. For BofA, that's $15 billion more in losses. Toss in $55 billion in commercial- and consumer-loan losses, and you get $121 billion in lending deficits...
...would be a major coup. These days, it's major trouble. Home buyers owe the bank $360 billion, up from about $150 billion just three months ago. Next, Wells has $154 billion in commercial real estate loans, as well as $200 billion in other types of commercial debt. Apply Roubini's overall 13% loss projection, and the conclusion is that Wells may be sitting on a $117 billion loss...