Word: roubini
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...Some respected voices certainly think so. Nouriel Roubini, a professor at the Stern Business School at New York University, has warned for years of the dangers of a coming financial implosion. "The risk of a hard landing in China is sharply rising," he wrote recently. "A deceleration in the Chinese growth rate to 7% in 2009 - just a notch above a 6% "hard landing" - is highly likely, and an even worse outcome cannot be ruled out at this point." But other analysts, many of whom are China specialists, believe that a range of factors unique to the nation will...
...That puts Goldman well ahead, for the moment at least, of even Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor known as Dr. Doom - whose current forecast is about -4%. Lots of Wall Street economists less renowned for their gloominess have by now moved past the -3% mark. In fact, one explanation for the stock market's horrible week could be that the realization of just how bad the quarter will be is finally sinking in among investors. (See the Top 10 Dow Jones drops...
Lastly, the G-20 central banks need to unveil another coordinated rate cut to increase liquidity. The European Central Bank, for instance, has been resistant to cuts because it focuses on inflation. Nouriel Roubini, an economics professor at New York University and one of the few who predicted the extent of the current crisis, called yesterday for "at least 150 basis points (1.5 percentage points) on average globally." Roubini also backed the idea of deposit guarantees, guaranteeing interbank lending and other measures. "At this point, anything short of these radical and coordinated actions may lead to a market crash...
...Roubini has been particularly apocalyptic, but given how things have gone in the world economy over the past few weeks, it's worth listening to this prophet of doom. Maybe things aren't as dire as he says. But maybe only the prospect of global catastrophe can compel world leaders to act forcefully while we still have some money left...
...sold (à la Merrill Lynch), Goldman too has been pummeled. The firm's quarterly profit plunged 70% - results considered to be relatively good. While analysts generally believe that Goldman and Morgan Stanley will survive the meltdown, that view is not unanimous. Says doomster New York University economics professor Nouriel Roubini: "They will be gone in a matter of months as well. It's better if Goldman or Morgan Stanley find a buyer, because their business model is fundamentally flawed." Both firms would beg to disagree, but their stock prices have been hammered...