Word: royals
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...France voted emphatically - and massively - for a classic right-left showdown in the battle for the nation's presidency. A whopping 85% voter turnout on Sunday fueled conservative standard-bearer and hands-on favorite Nicolas Sarkozy into the May 6 runoff against his principal rival, Socialist Party candidate Segolene Royal. But while both finalists spent much of their late campaigning playing to their respective hard-right and hard-left flanks, their efforts to win the presidency now depends upon their success in wooing a new force in French politics: France's suddenly surging center...
...Early election returns showed Union for a Popular Majority (UMP) candidate Sarkozy winning around 30% of the vote, versus nearly 26% for Royal - largely in line with what recent polls had projected. But the strong, 18.5% showing by Francois Bayrou of the Union for French Democracy party casts the centrist in the role of possible kingmaker going into the second round. The weight of the Bayrou vote was further enhanced by the electoral whipping of extreme-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen, who in France's last presidential race in 2002 shocked the nation by making it into the final...
...Until recently, simulated second-round scenarios favored Sarkozy over Royal - though most also found him losing to Bayrou. For that reason, many Sarkozy backers have long prayed for a Royal matchup. But there are signs the contest may not be a Sarko slam-dunk after all. First, the last poll simulation found Sarkozy-Royal ending in a 50-50% tie. Meanwhile, Sarkozy - who built his hard-line, law-and-order reputation as France's Interior Minister - has sparked outrage among rivals and even consternation among his backers by embracing crime-fighting policies and immigration proposals that some critics have likened...
...Bayrou has a potent vote utile argument of his own: Polls regularly show that he would have a better chance than Royal would have of beating Sarkozy in the head-to-head second round on May 6. His appeal has prompted several former Socialist ministers to break rank and urge their party to promise to govern in coalition with the centrists, prompting outrage from party leaders. But if Royal does make it into the second round, their tune could quickly change...
...presidents. Still, the former Interior Minister has consistently, although narrowly, led the polls all year, and has allowed his lieutenants to begin sketching plans for government as if their victory were assumed. But Sarkozy, too, faces a balancing act. Maintaining his two- to four-point lead over Royal depends on him continuing to attract at least some of the almost 17% of French voters who backed Le Pen in 2002. It is to secure their votes that Sarkozy has made calls for a clampdown on immigration and emphasis on France's national identity and Christian roots a centerpiece...