Word: runoffs
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Some political observers think Tuesday's Senate runoff in Georgia is a big deal because a victory by underdog Jim Martin over incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss would keep alive the Democratic Party's dreams of a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority to move its agenda successfully through the Senate. Other experts see the race as a big deal for the opposite reason; Democrats with that majority as well as control of the House and White House could overreach, leading to a conservative backlash...
...Georgia runoff, however, is one key political celebrity short - much to the detriment of Democratic challenger Jim Martin. President-elect Barack Obama did not make an appearance in Georgia. He did record a radio ad for Martin and robo-calls, but that's all. And now Democrats fear that the surge in black voters that made Martin competitive on Nov. 4 may not materialize on Dec. 2. "It may be that for some voters the real election was a few weeks ago and that this is just details," says Merle Black, a political science professor at Emory University. "Obama...
Chambliss was forced to remain in campaign mode against Martin because of a state election law that requires a runoff if neither candidate wins 50% plus one additional vote. The results of the Nov. 4 election were Chambliss 49.8%; Martin 46.8% and Libertarian candidate Allen Buckley with 3.4%. Right now Martin trails Chambliss in polls by as many as five percentage points. The Martin campaign says that speculation that Martin is trailing because blacks aren't drawn to support him without Obama in sight is "one of the vicious campaign tactics Chambliss is famous for." Chambliss, for his part...
...Special elections can have quirky results, and pollsters say the runoff will come down to turnout. But all elections come down to turnout, and it's hard to see the path to victory for Martin, a mild-mannered former state legislator and human-resources commissioner who is unusually progressive for a statewide candidate in Georgia. Chambliss narrowly missed an outright majority in November, pulling in 49.8% to Martin's 46.8%, and black Democrats who turned out in record numbers to support Obama didn't vote early for Martin in similar numbers. John McCain and Sarah Palin both returned to Georgia...
...That's one more reason today's runoff is a big deal. A Chambliss victory would not send much of a message to the nation; it would just confirm the obvious fact that Georgia is more conservative than the nation. But it could reinforce the dangerous message that recent electoral results have been sending to Republicans. GOP moderates like Connecticut Congressman Christopher Shays and GOP pragmatists like North Carolina gubernatorial candidate Pat McCrory keep losing, while most Republican survivors have been conservatives from conservative districts and conservative states. So the party keeps looking more like Chambliss and moving further...