Word: russia
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...allowed the protests to continue without interference, the memory of the government’s violent suppression of protests in 2007 remains a mark on Saakashvili’s record as a democratic leader. And early last week, a tank division mutinied against the government. Whether or not Russia was behind the plot—as Saakashvili has implied—it is a clear indicator that Georgia does not have full control over its military forces...
...Saakashvili has called the exercises a “symbolic event,” and it appears clear that, at least in Saakashvili’s mind, the purpose of these maneuvers is to demonstrate NATO’s solidarity with Georgia and its willingness to defend Georgia against Russia, if need be. Given the suggestions that the August war was at least partly the fault of Saakashvili’s recklessness, however, it seems likely that any suggestion that NATO will come to his aid will only make him bolder, particularly in the face of domestic calls...
...will come to Georgia’s aid with any more enthusiasm than it did in August. NATO condemned Russia’s recognition of the breakaway regions and last September formed a basis for cooperation with the NATO-Georgia Commission. However, supporting Georgia, particularly in a struggle with Russia for territories the rest of the world considers to be relatively minor, would not only be a political disaster for NATO members, but might risk direct war between NATO and Russia. With NATO decreasing its support for the ongoing war in Afghanistan, it is hardly realistic to expect that...
...Calling off the exercises after they have already begun might appear to be a show of weakness by NATO, but such an action would be infinitely better than provoking Russia into another war. Even if the exercises cannot be called off at this point, however, they are indicative of a larger problem in NATO’s approach to relations with Russia. While NATO members should not give in to Russia’s every demand, deliberately angering Russia, as former President Bush did last April by supporting Georgia and Ukraine’s unrealistic bids for NATO membership...
...demonstrating it in such a provocative manner—especially considering the current state of relations between NATO and Russia—is simply foolish. Since NATO is not prepared to—and should not—throw its full support behind Georgia in another war with Russia, then it should be careful that Russia doesn’t call its bluff...