Word: sadr
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...Military-intelligence officers who were in Iraq at the time, however, saw evidence that the Baathists regrouped in the spring of 2004, when the U.S. was preoccupied with battling a rebellion led by Shi'ite extremist Muqtada al-Sadr in Iraq's south and with the fight for the rebel-held city of Fallujah in the Sunni triangle. And the U.S. intelligence officials believe that some former regime loyalists began to be absorbed by other rebel groups, including those made up of religious extremists and Iraqi nationalists...
...four provinces, but in only two provinces are those majorities large enough to scuttle the constitution. Despite massive voter registration drives on the part of the Sunnis, to get the numbers needed, they will have to ally themselves with other forces, most likely those of populist cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who commands the loyalty of millions of poor Shi'ites in Baghdad and across the south. Al-Sadr has spoken out against federalism and is involved in a power struggle with the major Shi'ite party backing the constitution. But thus far, he has kept his intentions in the referendum...
...Moqtada al-Sadr, leader of millions of poor Shi'ites in Sadr City in Baghdad and across the south, appears to be leaning against the constitution and his followers have demonstrated alongside Sunnis over the issue of federalism. SCIRI, Badr and Dawa all support the constitution. Significantly, they all have support from Iran while al-Sadr's relationship with Iraq's Persian neighbor has been stormy. His opposition to the constitution is more about limiting the influence of Iran rather than hard opposition to the principle of Iraqi federalism, while SCIRI and Badr are packed with Iranian sympathizers...
...possible al-Sadr is using his flirtation with the Sunnis to win concessions from other Shi'ite leaders. Fattah al-Sheikh, a member of al-Sadr's movement, told TIME the cleric has not yet made a decision on the constitution. Though most Shi'ite leaders support it, al-Sadr in the past has criticized the idea of dividing Iraq into three autonomous regions, as called for in the constitution...
Rejection of the constitution would almost certainly delay any plans for a partial pullout of U.S. troops. But the U.S. has officially refused to negotiate with al-Sadr because of his history of insurrection. That leaves it to the Iraqi government to try to win him over. Says government spokesman Laith Kubba: "There is a lot of effort behind the scenes to bring everybody on board." --By Christopher Allbritton, Aparisim Ghosh and Meitham Jasim