Word: sadr
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...Despite his apocalyptic rhetoric, Sadr has consistently used his defiance of the U.S. and its Iraqi allies as a basis to build his own political support. His latest game of brinkmanship may actually boost his chances of playing a central role in the new political order - not the new order as defined by the U.S. via its appointment of Allawi, but the one that will emerge as U.S. influence begins to recede and Iraqi parties compete for power. Sadr's rejection of direct participation in the national conference, for example, was couched not in complete rejection of the idea...
...Sadr may have hedged his bets. The Financial Times reports that even as the showdown continues at Najaf, Moqtada's Baghdad representative has in fact been participating in the national conference. Not only that; according to the FT he's also co-sponsoring an "opposition" list of delegates for the interim national assembly in alliance with an unlikely bedfellow - the former Pentagon favorite Ahmed Chalabi, who has reacted to his fall from favor in Washington (and his legal troubles with the new government in Baghdad) by seeking to reinvent himself as a champion of the Shiite masses...
...Despite cloaking himself in the mantle of defender of the holy places, Moqtada Sadr has little claim to religious authority. He lacks the theological status of a Marjah ("object of emulation") like the Grand Ayatollahs, and there are questions over just how much seminarian learning he has under his belt. Sadr is, in other words, purely a political leader - and one quietly reviled by much of the clerical leadership. But operating in secret under Saddam's rule, he built a mass following among the Shiite urban poor, trading on the reverence for his father and grandfather, legendary rebel clerics murdered...
...Moqtada Sadr's political ambitions give him an incentive to peacefully end the standoff at Najaf - although he?s unlikely to do it in a way that loses face. If he emerges triumphant from yet another showdown with the Americans bringing an end to a stalemate that had improbably become a national crisis (even if it was largely of his own making), Sadr could conceivably even expand his following. To achieve that he'll have to be able to demonstrate whatever deal was struck to pull his own men out of the holy sites also resulted in a withdrawal...
...high stakes game continues. While prospects for a peaceful outcome at Najaf persist, its attainment will depend in large part on Moqtada Sadr's sense of timing - and his, and Allawi's, grasp of the maxim that "politics is the art of the possible...