Word: sadr
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...latest cease-fire in Najaf may be a telling measure of the political balance of forces in the new Iraq. Having launched an armored offensive into the Shiite holy city after vowing to destroy Moqtada Sadr's Mehdi militia, U.S. commanders abruptly called a halt to offensive operations on Friday as truce negotiations between Sadr and the interim government of Prime Minister Iyad Allawi continued. But a new truce wasn't exactly what Allawi and the Americans had in mind when they vowed earlier in the week to finish the fight and break the back of Sadr's forces...
...anything, the stakes riding on the showdown in Najaf may be even greater than they were in Fallujah. Although Sadr does not represent the majority of Iraqi Shiites, his support and sympathy in Iraq's largest community has grown substantially as a result of his clashes with the Americans. The majority of Shiites may not identify with Sadr's rabblerousing populism, but opinion surveys show they are considerably more resentful of the U.S. presence in their country regardless of the new government's dependence on American military support. That only adds to the difficulties facing U.S. forces now that they...
...Moqtada Sadr's exhortations to battle, his willingness to extend the confrontation throughout southern Iraq and also into Baghdad, and the failure thus far of all efforts to cajole him back into a truce, suggest the firebrand cleric is feeling lucky. By inviting the U.S. military to invade the spiritual epicenter of Iraqi Shiism, the new government risks fatally undermining its prospects for establishing legitimacy among Iraq's majority community. Even though the Sadrists have provoked the confrontation, the prevailing animosity towards the U.S. forces among ordinary Shiites will likely play to Moqtada's advantage in his political challenge...
...Sadr's Strategy
...worth remembering that even as Sadr makes blood-and-fire speeches about fighting to the death in Najaf, his militia in the holy city is pretty much an expeditionary force. Although they have a presence in every Shiite urban community, the Sadrists' organizational base is in the Sadr City slums of East Baghdad, where their capacity for challenging the authority of the U.S.-backed government may be even greater. Following new attacks by Sadr supporters on U.S. and government targets in the capital late last week, the government declared a curfew in Sadr City - but reports suggest it has been...