Word: sadr
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Could Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's attempts to re-establish control over Basra backfire? There is a growing possibility that it could become a wider intra-Shi'ite war, drawing in the forces loyal to radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, whose ceasefire has been key to the success of the U.S. "surge"? If so, the consequences for American military strategy in Iraq in an all-important political year will be grave...
...response, Sadr loyalists have already taken to the streets in Baghdad, where U.S. troops will have to deal with the backlash. U.S. officials have so far shied away from blaming Sadr for the recent rise of violence (including an Easter attack on the Green Zone), mostly because Sadr's ceasefire has been key to the success of the surge. (General David Petraeus has pointed the finger at Iran instead.) But as clashes increase, they may not be able to dance around it for much longer...
...decides to actively go after the Shi'ite forces in the south, it would mean reopening a southern front where American forces once fought some of the Iraq war's fiercest battles against Sadr but now have only a shadow presence. That would involve draining the concentration of surge troops around Baghdad and the Sunni triangle. It might even require more troop extensions or additional deployments to hold ground and maintain modest gains. Moving against the Shi'ite strongholds could then open opportunities for the Sunni fighters of al-Qaeda to strike Iraqi and U.S. targets in the Sunni triangle...
Last fall, U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker suggested that Iran may be lessening its militant activities in Iraq. He pointed to the cease-fire by Sadr, speculating that Iran may have had a hand in convincing the Shi'a warlord to take that approach. Crocker noted that rocket attacks against the Green Zone had dropped and wondered aloud whether Tehran was being suddenly more cooperative in Iraq...
...military officials view such cells as rogue elements of the Mahdi Army, making them viable targets of attack despite the prevailing cease-fire declared by Sadr. But the lines between Sadr's militiamen and Iranian-backed operatives who emerge from those ranks are blurry at best in the murky world of Iraq's guerrilla movement. Ali, himself a mainline Mahdi member, says he was taken to Iran for training and, in fact, continues to receive financial support from operatives linked to Iranian intelligence. During his interview with TIME, he did not discuss whether his Mahdi Army superiors knew...